Card appearence probability

    • Card appearence probability

      I have a very good card, my best card, jensen the marionet maker or something like that....i built my deck around this card and my champion is the lascive elf.....but i played at least 20 matches with the deck and only 2 times jensen appeared....i dont know that its only bad luck or the good cards have a different probability of appearence than the common cards.

      The game is great.
    • There are some opening hand shenanigans though(ever started with zero shards?) but yes, after that it's all random. I don't have a degree in probability, but I do know that building a deck around a single card without some sort of card draw of fetch mechanic is very likely to fail.
    • Let's assume the following:
      • You have a 60 deck, in which you have one Jensen
      • You play a game that lasts 8 turns
      • You do not Mulligan
      In this situation, you will have seen 15 cards in your deck (7 from the opening hand, then 8 as you drew one each turn). That is 25% of your cards. In one game, you have 75% chance of not seeing Jensen.

      Repeat the above scenario for 10 games. You then have (0.7510) = 5.6% chance of not seeing Jensen in any of those 10 games. 5% is a lot higher than what people expect. It's one out of 20 chance. If you roll a critical miss, you will not see Jensen for 10 games in a row.

      You claim you saw him twice in 20 games? That is not out of the ordinary.
    • Fred wrote:

      Let's assume the following:
      • You have a 60 deck, in which you have one Jensen
      • You play a game that lasts 8 turns
      • You do not Mulligan
      In this situation, you will have seen 15 cards in your deck (7 from the opening hand, then 8 as you drew one each turn). That is 25% of your cards. In one game, you have 75% chance of not seeing Jensen.

      Repeat the above scenario for 10 games. You then have (0.7510) = 5.6% chance of not seeing Jensen in any of those 10 games. 5% is a lot higher than what people expect. It's one out of 20 chance. If you roll a critical miss, you will not see Jensen for 10 games in a row.

      You claim you saw him twice in 20 games? That is not out of the ordinary.
      Doing math like a nerd ha!

      But yes listen to fred variance especially with those odds is far from unheard of and if you want to draw jensen more add card draw mechanics. If you really really want to find jensen playing Oakhenge Ceremony is probably your best bet it lets you look 5 cards deep for only 1 resource. There is also rites of the tranquil dream that has the upside of being able to trigger jensens rowdy while looking 6 cards deep if you don't have him yet.