Figuring out the drop rates of the Kismet Reserve Packs

    • Figuring out the drop rates of the Kismet Reserve Packs

      So there seems to be an interest in getting drop rates on the Kismet Reserve's Packs that are now available in the store. Unlike Convocation Packs, these are a lot more expensive and so it's hard for a single individual to get good drop rates. For example, I've only opened 3 packs and got the sleeve and one each of the PvE cards.

      So I create a Google site for the community to aggregate their data in order to figure out drop rates:

      It's nothing fancy, but it gets the job done.

      It will require a Google account. I do not collect your email, but logging in through Google will allow you to update your response as you buy more packs in the future.

      If there's any statistics you'd like me to add once there are enough responses to actually do statistics on, feel free to post here and I'll update the spreadsheet.
    • Steric wrote:

      I just inputted the results from the 20 packs that I opened. One thing to note is that the percentages are going to end up being skewed by the fact that the Sleeves can only be obtained once per player.

      Yeah... but I'm not exactly sure what to do about it. Taking it out will probably be better in the long run, when most packs that are opened have no chance of having sleeves in them. But then players would have no indication of how rare the sleeves actually are.

      The most accurate would probably be to have two polls, one for pre-obtaining-sleeve and one for post-obtaining-sleeve, in order to get the most accurate percentages, but that implementation just seems really clunky and prone to individuals misreporting.

      A better option could be to change the sleeves reporting to be "how many packs did you open until you obtained the sleeves?". So players can have some sort of indication of the rarity of the sleeves, yet this option won't affect the long term percentages.

    • So I updated the form to instead ask for how many packs did you open until you received the sleeves. This should then give players an idea of how many packs are needed to get sleeves, and give true drop percentages for the rest of the items to players that already have the sleeves. .

      I then deleted all the data collected about the sleeves. So when you resubmit data, you can then add about how may packs you opened to get the sleeves. If you don't remember, just leave it blank.
    • DeStereo wrote:

      Wow you guys all got the sleeves in like 2 packs?! Took me 10 of them! 8|
      I personally got it in 3, but I don't think the sleeves are actually that common. I think there are hijinks afoot since the questions was originally asking "how many sleeves do you have?" like the other questions, but that isn't very informative. When I changed the question though, some people's answer didn't change so there are a surprising number of people that supposedly got the sleeve on first try.

      But to be honest, maybe the sleeve really can be that common... I'm not quite sure.